UFC 244 takes place Saturday, Nov. 4th, at the historic Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. Here’s a complete betting guide previewing the “Baddest motherf—” (BMF) title bout between Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal, including updated UFC odds and our betting prediction.
Main card (from 2am on BT Sport 1)
Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz (welterweight)
Kelvin Gastelum vs Darren Till (middleweight)
Stephen Thompson vs Vicente Luque (welterweight)
Derrick Lewis vs Blagoy Ivanov (heavyweight)
Kevin Lee vs Gregor Gillespie (lightweight)
Prelims (from midnight on BT Sport)
Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker (light heavyweight)
Shane Burgos vs Makwan Amirkhani (featherweight)
Brad Tavares vs Edmen Shahbazyan (middleweight)
Andrei Arloski vs Jaizinho Rozenstruik (heavyweight)
Early prelims (from 10.30pm on UFC FIGHT PASS)
Jennifer Maia vs Katylyn Chookagian (women’s flyweight)
Lyman Good vs Chance Rencountre (welterweight)
Julio Acre vs Hakeem Dawodu (featherweight)
UFC 244 prediction :
Main events of this magnitude make UFC betting predictions a near-impossible task, this perfectly matched fight between two athletes who match up equally in multiple aspects of the fight game. Neither fighter has an experience advantage, they both possess the mental attitude required to handle the main event nor are either two short of heart/toughness.
A striking exchange between the two is inevitable, especially in the early rounds. I don’t expect much grappling at all, given the implications involved and the ‘baddest “motherf—” title up for grabs, I can envision a 25-minute slugfest being played out between the two.
So, if I believe the fight will stay standing with a possible chance of some grappling in the latter stage of the fight, favoring Nate Diaz seems to be the intelligent betting move. Currently, Diaz is at a reasonable underdog price of +150. In a situation where I believe the fight is handicapped at -110 “pick’em”, it seems like a dog or pass is logical.
If we do witness a grappling exchange, Diaz should be more suited to gain the advantage here. This could be significant on the scorecards if the fight isn’t providing a significant winner in the striking exchanges, late takedowns and submission attempts could be the game-breaker. Diaz should also welcome Jorge into his guard; effective striking and submission attempts off his back are nothing new to him.
The pressure is on for both fighters to throw caution to the wind, and leave it all in the octagon. Diaz can sometimes start slow; lose the early exchanges then take over late in the fight with pressure and cardio advantage. The five-round fighter definitely plays in favor of Diaz, the durability of Diaz worries for me Jorge’s chances to win this 25-minute war. I’m not confident that Jorge can provide the same efficiency and output in the later rounds. Diaz has a considerable size advantage, height and reach.
In the grand scheme of things, I think both fighters lay-out a striking game much similar to one another. With a strong cardio base, Jiu-Jitsu advantage, size advantage and 25 minutes to get the job done, I have to side with the bad motherf— from Stockton, California.